Databased dynamic urban evolution prediction
General responsive urban model which proceeds from actual requirements of urban population. From demands of residents, labourers and visitors of specific localities. All these individuals and groups leave a continuous virtual footprint through their behaviour and acting in cities. With the help of this proposed model – D.U.M. – it becomes possible to read these virtual breadcrumbs, understand behaviour of urban populations and translate it to prediction and suitable virtual site specific design.
D.U.M. is primary based on data inputs. These inputs represent social, economic and spatial interactions within urban environment. How people behave, how they act, what are their requirements and intentions and what is spatial projection of these all. D.U.M. translates these inputs to three abstracted and measurable factors (Intensity, Connectivity and Developability of each site), which are key for understanding of urban environment and its dynamics. Model relates these continuously and as a result it tries to predict urban growth or decline of urban areas. It also simulates behaviour of potential investors in modelled area through strategic multi-agent system. So the model is able to predict exact sites, where the potential development is going to emerge. And on these sites it predicts a site specific urban form and also abstracted buildings themselves.
Generative models such as developed D.U.M. should serve to wide range of users. For example to municipalities to be able to react and adjust urban planning regulations for specific sites and to communicate better with public. Also to investors or to any individual. While increasing requirements on urban environment from all the sides, we have to upgrade our plannig, predictive and designing tools to secure more livable cities for every human being on this planet.